Part 4 of 4: Data driven reasoning of BJP’s Path to ~40% vote share and 320+ Seats in the 2024 General Elections

Predicting BJP’s Performance in the 2024 General Election

In this concluding part of our series, we will synthesize the insights from our previous analyses to predict BJP’s performance in the upcoming general elections.

By leveraging the core vote share (CVS) growth identified in Part 2 and the national vote premium (NVP) calculated in Part 3, we will apply the framework established in Part 1 to forecast BJP’s national vote share (NVS) for 2024.

I would like to reiterate that this blog series purely aims to offer a rigorous data-driven political analysis, seeking to present an objective examination based on historical election data, without serving as an endorsement of any ideology, party or government.

Recap – Framework, Insights and Hypothesis

Equation for Prediction:

NVS (2024) / NVS (2019) = CVS (2024) / CVS (2019)

CVS ratio (2024/2019) = M

And, NVP (2019 or 2024)/CVS(2019) = P

NVS (2024) = 37.4% * (M + P)/(1+P)

Stable Trends: Despite minor volatility, BJP’s core vote shares (CVS) and national vote premiums (NVP) have shown resilience and stability over time.

Core Vote Share (CVS): From Part 2, we calculate the CVS 2024 and CVS 2019 ratio as 1.09, i.e. approximately 9% increase in BJP’s core vote share from the 2019-2024 period.

National Vote Premium (NVP): In Part 3, we determined an average national vote premium for BJP to be around 10%. We also concluded that this premium is robust and achieve by BJP irrespective of the era, circumstances or outcomes of any national election. The data suggests that BJP will receive this minimum NVP bump even in 2024 elections – even if one assumes that the people not happy with current government.

Predicting BJPs 2024 NVS

Using the formula that was explained in Part 1 and incorporating the CVS growth rate and NVP, we can now calculate the predicted NVS for BJP in 2024:

NVS (2024) = 37.4 x 1.48/1.4 = 39.53% = ~40%

Estimating the Number of Seats

With a national vote share (NVS) of ~40%, the BJP has accomplished consistent growth in core vote share (CVS) across strong, moderate, and weak states, suggesting a robust voter base nationwide. This growth indicates that the BJP will likely at least retain its seat count achieved in 2019 across all regions (303 seats).

Additionally, the BJP is poised to increase its winning margins in many of these seats. If so, by how much? A detailed ‘micro lens’ analysis, focusing on the number of seats the BJP lost by less than a 5% margin, would be ideal but is beyond this series’ scope.

Therefore, we will use a ‘macro view’ analysis to identify potential gains.

Quick evaluation of perceived battleground/important states

Uttar Pradesh: Contrary to popular belief, with a strong CVS and NVP in Uttar Pradesh, data suggests the BJP will at least replicate its previous performance of about 50% vote share, translating to 70+ seats for BJP and 74+ for NDA, marking an increase of 9+ seats for BJP.

Bihar and Maharashtra: Macro data indicates that BJP will retain its CVS and NVP in these states, and by and large should preserve its share of 17 and 23 seats in Bihar and Maharashtra, respectively. Only a minor small dent is possible, if at all.

West Bengal: BJP lost Badly in West Bengal in the last State Elections, leading some to believe that BJPs tally will go down in 2024. What’s overlooked is that BJP’s CVS has been growing significantly in each election – including in 2021 WB state election – and its NVP in Bengal remains strong.

In the last state election, the BJP achieved its highest-ever CVS of about 38%. With an NVP around 12%, the BJP’s LS vote share in 2024 is likely to exceed the 41% of 2019, positioning the party well to increase its seats in West Bengal.

Andhra Pradesh: The BJP, in alliance with TDP, is well-positioned to gain a substantial number of seats.

Telangana: With a 100% growth in CVS and a healthy addition of about 7% NVP, BJP should gain a few seats beyond the 4 it won in 2019.

Odisha: Following similar reasoning, BJP is expected to gain a few seats here as well.

Karnataka: This state may see a slight decrease in BJP seats, but only a handful, if at all. The BJP has maintained its CVS in the 2023 state election, though INC has increased its CVS. BJP should still win a significant number of seats with the addition of NVP, and alliance with JDS.

Big picture and prediction

Based on the above analysis, the ‘macro view’ predicts a ~40% vote share for the BJP, translating to approximately 320-350 seats in the upcoming 2024 elections.

By: Tushar Srivastava