Part 3 of 4: Data driven reasoning of BJP’s Path to ~40% vote share and 320+ Seats in the 2024 General Elections

Mystical phenomenon of BJP’s National Vote Premium

In Part 1, the framework has been established while the Part 2 explores BJP’s core vote share (CVS) growth.

In this blog, we aim to calculate the national vote premium (NVP) for BJP and analyze this unusual, noteworthy, even mystical phenomenon.

I would like to reiterate that this blog series purely aims to offer a rigorous data-driven political analysis, seeking to present an objective examination based on historical election data, without serving as an endorsement of any ideology, party or government.

Here is the graph showing the BJP’s National Vote Premium (NVP) from 1999 to 2019 for all states. The data is presented for the years 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019, illustrating the changes in vote premium across these periods.

A colorful lines on a black background

Description automatically generated — Figure-1: BJPs received substantial NVP across all states on all General Elections

Interpretation and Analysis

The national vote premium data for BJP suggests something very deep and profound.

The obvious observation is that BJP gets consistent NVP, and quantum is fairly significant (currently 10% extra vote share, representing ~40% bump over SVS, let’s call it P = 0.4).

We just calculated the premium vs SVS ratio, P = 0.4, which we have used in part-1, the key purpose of this blog.

Table-1: BJP’s NVP, over the years and post Modi Era

Additionally, have a deeper look at BJPs NVP in 2004 and 2009 when BJP lost elections. It reveals that the BJP enjoys significant NVP irrespective of the era, circumstances or outcomes of any national election.

Table-2: NVP when BJP lost the national elections

It’s a crucial observation as the data suggests that BJP should receive this minimum NVP bump even in 2024 elections – even if one assumes that the people aren’t happy with the current government.

Why the national vote premium for BJP?

One obvious answer could be that BJP enjoys the premium because it is seen as a national alternative in national elections. However, let’s test the argument by comparing NVPs for Indian National Congress and BJP in Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra, where these parties are the main contenders.

The table shows that while BJP maintains its vote premiums even in years when it loses national elections, INC loses its NVP during the elections it loses, when fighting against BJP. Strange!

Conclusion – the mystical NVP of BJP

This data reveals that BJP’s NVP is remarkably resilient, robust and independent of the electoral politics of the day. Whether the party is strong or weak in a state, whether it wins or loses at the national level, the vote premium remains positive (even significant). This phenomenon is not swayed by current political narratives, leadership changes, or economic conditions.

Looking ahead to the 2024 general elections, past trends would suggest that average NVP would be around 10%, reflecting a 37% bump over SVS. However, the actual numbers may be slightly less than this figure because as the BJP CVS increase might have been eating into the NVP.

In Part 4, we will use the CVS and NVP to predict BJP’s performance in the 2024 general elections.

Appendix-1: A note on the methodology to calculate the National Vote Premium (NVP)

To calculate the National Vote Premium (NVP), an estimation was required for the State Vote Share (SVS) in the year of a General Election. For instance, to estimate the SVS for 2019 (National election year), where the latest state election may have occurred two years earlier in 2017, we followed a specific approach.

We considered the state election results immediately preceding and succeeding the General Election year. By assuming a linear progression of the SVS between these two points, we interpolated the SVS for the intervening years.

Disclaimer on Data and Analysis

While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data presented, minor errors may exist due to the complexities of data collection and analysis. Factors such as incomplete contestation of seats, , party alliances, voter turnout and source inaccuracies can affect overall analysis and assessments. The primary sources of data are the Election Commission of India and IndiaVotes.in.

I am in no way responsible for any errors or incorrect analysis.

By: Tushar Srivastava