Part 2 of 4: Data driven reasoning of BJP’s Path to ~40% vote share and 320+ Seats in the 2024 General Elections

Mapping BJP’s Core Vote Share Across India

Analyzing every single state in India individually is not feasible due to the vast and diverse nature of the country. However, by selecting a few diverse states, we can identify trends that serve as robust proxies for the overall trend in the country.

Firstly, India’s political landscape is too diverse to be simplified into just North and South. Instead, we consider the following regions for our analysis:

• North: Uttar Pradesh (UP), Rajasthan, and northwards
• West: Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa
• Mid: Madhya Pradesh (MP), Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Bihar
• East & North East: West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, and eastwards
• South: Telangana, Karnataka, and southwards

Secondly, we will also consider states where the BJP is strong, modest, and weak in strength. This diverse sampling will allow us to capture a comprehensive picture of BJP’s core vote share.

I would like to reiterate that this blog series purely aims to offer a rigorous data-driven political analysis, seeking to present an objective examination based on historical election data, without serving as an endorsement of any ideology, party or government.

List of states and election years analyzed

We analyzed BJP’s state vote share (SVS) from 1995 to 2024 for the following 13 states: Assam, Bihar, Delhi, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

Key Insights

1. Consistent Growth in State Vote Share (SVS): we created a chart for 8 selected states, Figure-1, which demonstrates that BJP’s State Vote Share has generally increased over the years, with significant (even accelerating) gains observed in the last decade. Even in instances of decline, the reductions have been minimal.
2. Year 2000 to 2014: For the 13 states analyzed, 19 instances where the BJP’s state vote share has increased, while 13 instances where the vote share has declined.
3. Post 2014: For the 13 states analyzed, 18 instances where the BJP’s state vote share has increased, while 8 instances where the vote share has declined.
4. Alliances Impact: It’s beyond the scope of this blog series, but it can be observed that recent declines in SVS in Bihar and Maharashtra were not due to a decline in the core voter base of BJP but due to changes in party alliances and seat distribution. For example, in 2015 in Bihar, BJP contested more seats (no alliance with JDU), but in 2020 it contested fewer seats (with JDU alliance).
5. Phenomenal Growth in Weaker States: The SVS growth in traditionally weaker states like Telangana and West Bengal has been phenomenal, showcasing BJP’s expanding influence in these regions.

Do note that the chart below shows value by which SVS increased/decreased, and not the SVS itself.

Figure:1: increase/decrease in BJP’s SVS, 2000-2024

Table-1: Percentage increase in Core Vote Share (CVS) in 2019-2024 period vs 2014-2019 period

Big Insights

Table-1 represents the percentage growth in state vote shares in the 13 states from the 2019-2024 state elections compared to the 2014-2019 period, which is a proxy for percentage growth in BJPs core vote shares (CVS) .

Excluding West Bengal and Telangana as outliers of high growth, the average growth in state vote share across this diverse set has been 4%. However, a more accurate estimation will require exclusion of Bihar and Maharashtra for the reasons explained earlier (in fact, the CVS has likely gone up in these states). After this consideration, the average CVS bump is 8%.

Hence we conclude that the nationwide bump in BJPs CVS from 2014-2019 period to 2019-2024 is approximately 8%.

Analysing the Prime Minister Modi’s effect on CVS post 2014

Pre-Modi-2014: Prior to Narendra Modi’s leadership, BJP’s vote share in states like Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh demonstrated consistent strength, showcasing the party’s solid regional foothold. However, in states like Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, BJP struggled to maintain a significant presence, often seeing its vote share dip into lower percentages.

Modi Era Surge: The advent of Modi’s leadership heralded a transformative period for BJP, marked by significant gains in vote share across the board. In Gujarat, the vote share climbed to 52.5% by 2022, reflecting a growth of over 5% from the early 2000s. Similarly, dramatic turnarounds were witnessed in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, where vote shares leaped to 41.3% and 38.1% respectively, illustrating the substantial impact of Modi’s broad appeal and strategic campaigning.

Figure–2 – BJP’sCVS impact pre and post 2014

Table-2: Strong/moderate/weak states for BJP

State	Pre-Modi Era Analysis	Post-Modi Era Analysis
Gujarat	From 1995 to 2012, vote share hovered between 42.5% and 49.9%.	Since 2014, further consolidation, peaking at 52.5% in 2022 (+5.3% growth).
Madhya Pradesh	Upward trend from 37.6% in 2008 to 44.9% in 2013.	Continued growth to 49.0% in 2023 (+4.1% growth since 2013).
Rajasthan	Increased from 33.3% in 1998 to 45.2% in 2013.	Initial decrease, then stabilized to 42.1% in 2023.
Telangana	N/A (State formed post-2013)	Growing influence from 7.1% in 2014 to 14.0% in 2023 (doubling vote share).
Uttar Pradesh	Notable dip from 32.8% in 1996 to 15.0% in 2012.	Dramatic resurgence to 41.3% in 2022 (substantial growth).
West Bengal	Minimal presence, with shares around 6.5% in 1996 to 3.1% in 2006.	Significant rise to 38.1% in 2021 (unprecedented surge).

Regional representation: presence and growth of BJP in diverse regions of India

BJP now has a dominance in 3 regions, substantial vote base in 1 region, and a growing influence in the South.

Table-3: Regional strength

Region	Pre-Modi Era	Post-Modi Era
North & West	BJP’s core vote was primarily in parts of the North and West.	Continued dominance.
Mid	Scarcely distributed votes.	Significant gains, e.g., Madhya Pradesh’s vote share increased to 49.0% in 2023, and growing base in Bihar, Orissa, Chhattisgarh etc
East & North East	Scarcely distributed votes.	Dramatic rise, e.g., West Bengal’s vote share surged to 38.1% in 2021.
South	Scarcely distributed votes.	Growing influence, with a strong base in Karnataka (14.0% in Telangana by 2023).

Conclusion

The analysis of state election data, serving as a proxy for BJP’s core vote, not only illustrates a strengthened core across diverse regions but also signals the party’s growing national resonance, challenging traditional regional bastions.

The nationwide bump in BJPs CVS from 2014-2019 period to 2019-2024 is approximately 8%.

This expanding momentum suggests that it will require significant something to reverse BJPs CVS. Despite narratives driven by short-term or immediate events, the electoral outcomes at the macro level are unlikely to shift dramatically.

Data also dispels the notion that Modi’s appeal don’t work at state level elections. BJP may not yet be successful in winning seats in weaker states, but by an large the SVS is increasing in pretty much all across the country, and at some point seat conversion will be more robust.

In Part 3, we’ll explore the BJP’s national vote premium, and understand why its an unusual and noteworthy phenomenon.

Disclaimer on Data and Analysis

While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data presented, minor errors may exist due to the complexities of data collection and analysis.

Factors such as incomplete contestation of seats, , party alliances, voter turnout and source inaccuracies can affect overall analysis and assessments. The primary sources of data are the Election Commission of India and IndiaVotes.in. I am in no way responsible for any errors or incorrect analysis.

By: Tushar Srivastava