Part 1 of 4: Data driven reasoning of BJP’s Path to ~40% vote share and 320+ seats in 2024 General Elections

Setting up the framework, claim, and hypothesis

India’s ongoing general elections are the world’s largest democratic exercise, with over 900 million eligible voters casting their ballots to choose their representatives.

This massive electoral process dwarfs other democratic elections; for comparison, the 2020 US presidential election saw about 160 million voters, while the European Union, with its 27 member states, has an electorate of approximately 375 million.

The scale and complexity of India’s elections highlight the country’s vibrant and diverse democracy, making it a remarkable feat of organizational logistics and civic participation.

The results are due on June 4, 2024.

It must be noted that the blog series aims to offer a rigorous data-driven political analysis, seeking to present an objective examination based on historical election data, without serving as an endorsement of any ideology, party or government.

Macro (vs Micro) approach

Analyzing India’s elections through a data-driven lens is a fascinating exercise.

In this series, I am adopting a ‘macro view’ focusing on long-term trends rather than the ‘micro lens’ of recent narratives, opinion polls, or events. This macro approach uncovers interesting patterns, providing a more stable and reliable prediction framework that captures voter behavior over time.

Structure of the Blog Series

The blog series will largely focus on predicting BJP’s electoral performance, only because the BJP is currently the dominant electoral force in India. Therefore, its performance in the 2024 general election will be crucial in defining the overall outcome of this significant democratic event.

Here’s what we will cover in this series:

1. Part 1: Setting up the framework, claim, and hypothesis for the overall analysis.
2. Part 2: Analyzing BJP’s core vote share (CVS), state vote share (SVS), long-term trends, and the effect of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
3. Part 3: Understanding the mystical nature of BJP’s national vote premium (NVP).
4. Part 4: Putting everything together, prediction, and summary.

Claim

BJP should be able to secure 320+ seats and achieve a ~40% vote share in the ongoing national elections – compared to 37 per cent and 31 per cent in 2019 and 2014, respectively.

The Hypothesis

My analysis for the 2024 general elections rests on two pivotal hypotheses:

1. Core Votes and National Vote Premiums:
   a) For national parties like the BJP, the proxy for core votes is reflected in state election vote shares, with a premium received in general elections.
   b) Conversely, regional parties like the Samajwadi Party secure their base vote in national elections and gain a regional party premium in state contests.
2. Core Vote bases are hard to sway, hold momentum, unless long term transformations occur
   Despite micro shifts and political turbulence, core electoral metrics like core vote shares hold steady unless transformative changes happen over a long period of time. This underscores a deep-seated loyalty among voters that resists short-term changes. For example, limited damage to the INC’s core vote share in 2014, despite adverse conditions, exemplifies this stability, highlighting that core votes are not easily swayed.

Equation for the prediction

To predict BJP’s national vote share (NVS) in a given year, we use the following equation:

BJPs NVS (year X) = BJPs CVS (leading up to year X) + BJPs NVP (year X)

As stated in the hypothesis, we will use BJPs State Vote Share (SVS), as the proxy for BJP’s Core Vote Share (CVS). We will calculate BJP’s National Vote Premium (NVP) in part-3.

Hence, let’s convert figures to ratios by dividing figures for year 2024 and 2019

NVS (2024) / NVS (2019) = [CVS (2024) + NVP (2024)] / [CVS (2019) + NVP (2019)] …eq-1

For now, let’s assume that the NVP for the BJP has remained stable from 2019 to 2024 (we will delve into detailed analysis in part-3).

Let’s say the CVS ratio (2024/2019) = M

And, NVP (2019 or 2024)/CVS(2019) = P

Divide RHS of eq-1 numerator and denominator by CVS (2019), and the eq-1 will reduce to:

NVS (2024) / NVS (2019) = (M + P)/(1+P)

NVS (2024) = 37.4% * (M + P)/(1+P)

NVS (2019) is 37.4%. We would calculate M = 1.08 (part-2) and P = 0.4 (part-3), substituting which we obtain

NVS (2024) = 37.4 x 1.48/1.4 = 39.53% = ~40%

Explanation

An obvious question is why we needed this simplification. It’s because:

• It’s very hard to determine a robust number for Core Vote Share for BJP across the diverse country; however, as we will see in Part 2, it is relatively easier to find the ‘growth’ in the Core Vote Share (CVS) over a period of time. Hence, we aim to reduce the equation that with ‘CVS growth’ as the parameter.

All Set

With the framework now set, we are ready to move to Part 2 for the next steps. Stay tuned as we delve deeper into the analysis, focusing on BJP’s core vote share, long-term trends, and the effect of Modi in the next instalment.

Disclaimer on Data and Analysis

While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data presented, minor errors may exist due to the complexities of data collection and analysis. Factors such as incomplete contestation of seats, , party alliances, voter turnout and source inaccuracies can affect overall analysis and assessments. The primary sources of data are the Election Commission of India and IndiaVotes.in.

I am in no way responsible for any errors or incorrect analysis.

By: Tushar Srivastava